Global demand for gasoline will remain flat from 2014-2040, but global demand for diesel should grow by about 75% over the period to meet the needs of trucks and other commercial transportation, ExxonMobil said Thursday in its annual long-term energy forecast.
Gasoline demand, including ethanol, will remain flat largely because of increased efficiency. Hybrid cars, for example, will constitute 35% of the global light-duty vehicle fleet by 2040, the oil and gas major said in its "Outlook for Energy."
"The increase in energy demand in the commercial transportation sector is likely to be partially offset by significant improvements to fuel efficiency," the report said. "For example, more efficient truck, aviation, marine and train fleets, along with logistical system improvements such as intermodal shipping, will help slow the growth in transportation energy demand in many countries."
A rise in global commercial activity will result in a sharp increase in demand for diesel, including biodiesel, as well as jet fuel, the report said.
"The largest driver in commercial transportation energy demand will come from heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks and buses," the report said. "Demand for fuel for heavy-duty vehicles is projected to rise by about 70%, and account for about 60% of the total increase."
Global liquids production will continue to increase sharply through 2040 as new technology permits the tapping of vast resources, the company said. In North America, liquids production is expected to rise 40% over the forecast period, driven by gains in oil sands, tight oil and Natural Gas Liquids, according to the report.
"With production rising and demand falling, North America is expected to shift from a significant crude oil importer to a fairly balanced position by 2030," the report said.
Production growth also is expected in Latin America, where the development of Venezuelan oil sands, Brazilian deepwater and Brazilian biofuels is projected to nearly double production from the region through 2040, ExxonMobil said.
The Middle East is expected to have the largest absolute growth in liquids production. The expected 35% increase through 2040 will be led by conventional oil development in Iraq as well as growing production of NGLs and tight oil resources in the region, ExxonMobil said.